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# The EU's Wildfire Speech Only Told Half the Story
- URL: https://www.cores.media/the-eus-wildfire-speech-only-told-half-the-story/
- Published: 2026-09-18T17:56:50.000Z
- Updated: 2026-09-18T17:56:50.000Z
- Author: Cores.Media Team
- Tags: Australia, Canada, English, Global, EU, New Zealand, Politics & Governance, United Kingdom, USA

"Summer of truth," said European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in her State of the Union address on 16 September 2026\. She cited a figure: 660,000 hectares of forest burned, more than 35,000 additional deaths from heatwaves, 12 million tonnes of lost harvest. The chamber applauded.

The number is accurate. But an accurate number can still tell two very different stories, depending on what you compare it to.

## **Two ways to read the same figure**

The EU's own research body, the Joint Research Centre, publishes real-time wildfire data through its EFFIS system. As of 16 September 2026, the burnt area stood at 668,035 hectares — essentially the same figure von der Leyen cited.

Compared to last year, that's good news: 2025 was the worst wildfire season in EU history, with 1,079,538 hectares burned over the full year — nearly double the long-term average. This year's figure falls well short of that.

But compared to the 20-year average (2006–2025), which stands at 346,567 hectares, 2026 is still running at nearly double. And this isn't the first time: in 2017, 988,087 hectares burned over the full year, and by mid-August 2022, 659,541 hectares had already burned — a record pace at the time.

Neither framing is false. "Better than last year" and "still chronically above average" are both true at once. The question is which frame a political speech chooses to emphasize — and why.

## **Where the fires actually start**

There's another detail rarely mentioned in the same breath as dramatic hectare counts: roughly 95 percent of European wildfires are started by human activity. Cigarette butts, barbecues, sparks from vehicles, uncontrolled land clearing — and some fires set entirely on purpose.

Deliberate ignition is not a marginal share: in Portugal, 28 percent of 2022's fires were arson; in Spain, 20 percent of fires were classified by authorities as having a "pathological or senseless" cause. And behind many of these cases lies a motive well documented by researchers and journalists, particularly in Spain and Portugal: **land value speculation**. Forest or grazing land is deliberately burned so the scorched area can later be reclassified for construction or agriculture — a more valuable use than it had before the fire.

The pattern is well enough known that both Spain and Portugal have passed laws banning the reclassification of burned land for up to ten years after a fire, specifically to break this cycle.

## **A gap nobody has filled yet**

There's an uncomfortable gap here too: nobody really knows how large a share of fires are actually deliberate, because investigation is patchy. One estimate suggests only around 17 percent of fires are properly investigated, and only about 12 percent have a documented cause. The EU's own research centre noted in a July 2026 review that there is no unified European picture of why fires are deliberately set — arson investigation remains a national matter, not an EU-level one.

Which means that at the same time the Commission President speaks of a "summer of truth" using dramatic figures, the part of the truth that would explain *why* fires start and *who* benefits from them remains largely unmapped.

## **What would you ask?**

- Why does a public speech highlight the comparison that makes the situation look worst, when an equally truthful comparison was available?
- Who is responsible for the fact that arson investigation across Europe remains this fragmented, when nobody can say how large the problem really is?
- If land value speculation is a known motive, why isn't there yet a unified EU-level rule on reclassifying burned land?
- Who is accountable when climate policy is justified with figures whose context goes unmentioned?
- Other — tell us in the comments 👇

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